Outlook for Later this Week

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM..

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON FRIDAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRALALABAMA AFTER NOON. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY SHORTLYAFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS LOOKSPOSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES RAPIDLYACROSS THE AREA. STAY ADVISED OF ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS IN THETIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

Pollen Forecast: March 31

Today 8.2 (High) on a scale of 0-12
4/1/2008 9.1 (High) on a scale of 0-12
4/2/2008 8.6 (High) on a scale of 0-12

Today's predominant pollen:Oak, Ash and Cedar/Juniper.

---Technical Discussion---The quantity of pollen grains in the air for Tuesday will be falling but will remain in the high range. This lower level is caused by rising humidity and expected precipitation in the morning, afternoon and evening which tends to wash pollen out of the air. Relief is in sight.

Learn more about this month's featured pollen:

---Did You Know?---To reduce pollen exposure in vacation homes, air out and clean out these homes if they have been closed up all winter and susceptible to mold growth.

---Allergy Tip---To reduce attractive surface areas for dust and allergens, avoid using shelves, pennants, posters, elaborate photo frames, and other dust collectors as decorations.

Climate Fact: Strengthening Upwelling Patterns

Ocean currents transport heat from the Equator to the higher latitudes, as well as nutrient rich water from the depths of the ocean to the surface. The transport of cooler, nutrient rich water upward is a process known as upwelling. Upwelling feeds much of the life at the ocean’s surface, and 20 percent of the World’s fish catch occurs in areas where the upwelling is strong, although these areas account for only about one percent of the Planet’s ocean surface area. The Canaries Current, a southward moving current that brings cold, nutrient rich water up to the Moroccan Coastline, feeds a valuable fishery there. In the past century, the Sahara Desert Region has warmed faster than the adjacent ocean waters. This means that the low pressure zone over the Sahara desert has become lower and the high pressure zone that sits over the ocean has not changed that much, which has increased the pressure difference between these zones. Because the difference in pressure between the land and the ocean drives the winds that "pull" cold waters from the depths of the ocean to the surface, the winds have strengthened, and the upwelling has also strengthened. Over the Twentieth Century, the surface waters off the Moroccan coast have cooled by about 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit. Although other warm periods over the past 2,500 years have also corresponded to a strengthening of this current, the cooling that has happened over the past century is unprecedented.

(Source: McGregor, H.V. et at. "Rapid 20th-Century Increase in Coastal Upwelling off Northwest Africa." Science 315 (2007) 637-639.)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK - March 29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1247 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM CDT...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN THE WEST...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 85 IN THE EAST. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE HAIL...POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS A QUARTER...AND GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY WITH OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

Earth Gauge: Allergies and Weather

Tree pollens are typically the first allergens to show-up in the spring, causing problems for up to 40 million Americans that suffer from seasonal allergies. In Southern parts of the U.S., trees may have begun producing pollens as early as January, while production may not begin until April farther north. Regardless of where you live, the weather can have a major impact on allergy season:

-A mild winter can result in earlier tree pollination and an earlier start to the allergy season. If warm, mild weather continues into spring, pollen counts can rise.

-A late-freeze that follows a mild winter can reduce tree pollen production, or even halt pollen production completely for some trees.

-Windy weather increases pollen counts by spreading tiny pollens through the air.

-Rainy weather initially decreases pollen counts, but can increase pollen production later in the year by spurring growth of late-spring and summer grasses. If preceding fall or winter seasons were rainy, tree pollen counts may increase during the spring months.

Right now, Cedar, Juniper, Maple, and Elm pollens are the main allergy culprits in Birmingham, and pollen levels are high. If you suffer from seasonal allergies, reduce your exposure to tree pollens by avoiding outdoor activities during the early morning when trees usually emit pollens, between 5:00 and 10:00 a.m. Keep windows closed at night to keep pollens out of your home, and keep windows closed when traveling in the car.

(Sources: American College of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology. "Weather Forecasts Spring Pollen Allergy Severity." http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/03/070320122032.htm; American Academy of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology. "Tips to Remember: Outdoor Allergens." https://www.aaaai.org/patients/publicedmat/tips/outdoorallergens.stm; www.pollen.com)

Pollen Forecast: March 28th

Today 9.9 (High) on a scale of 0-12
3/29/2008 6.2 (Medium) on a scale of 0-12
3/30/2008 8.5 (High) on a scale of 0-12

Today's predominant pollen:Oak, Ash and Cedar/Juniper.

---Technical Discussion---The pollen levels for Saturday will be falling but will remain in the high range. Since the weather has a major influence on pollen dispersal, this decrease is due in part to falling temperatures, lack of strong winds and expected precipitation in the afternoon and evening which tends to wash pollen out of the air.

Learn more about this month's featured pollen:

---Did You Know?---Birch sensitive patients in northern Sweden often experience allergic symptoms prior to the start of the pollen season. A recent study found that these people were reacting to birch pollen blowing in from the Baltic States.

---Allergy Tip---Air-conditioner insulation, coils and drain pans, and even furnaces and automobiles are mold growers.

DROUGHT INFORMATION FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA

No rainfall of consequence occurred during the past week across central Alabama. The latest U.S. drought monitor continues to indicate severe to extreme drought conditions mainly east of Interstate 65 with severe drought conditions in the western sections of the CBS 42 viewing area.

Remaining areas to the south and west are in abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions.

It was dry during the past week across central alabama with no significant changes in our current drought conditions. So far this year, rainfall has averaged twelve to fourteen inches with localized amounts over fifteen inches in the extreme southeast sections.

So far this month rainfall has averaged three to four inches. Normal rainfall for March in central Alabama averages from five and one half to six and one half inches.

Some precipitation amounts for central alabama January 1st through March 26th:

Birmingham 12.38 inches

Montgomery 11.89 inches

Anniston 14.16 inches

Tuscaloosa 13.21 inches

Calera 13.95 inches

Troy 15.64 inches

To compare, here are the average precipitation amounts (in inches) expected and departure from normal from January 1st through March 26th:

Birmingham 14.82 down 2.44

Montgomery 15.95 down 4.06

Anniston 15.44 down 1.28

Tuscaloosa 16.17 down 2.96

Looking at the forecast, chances for rainfall will develop across central Alabama by late Friday and persist into the middle of next week. However, no widespread heavy rainfall is expected at this time.

Looking farther ahead, the medium range forecast for April 1st through April 9th calls for above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation chances.

The long range outlook for the remainder of April through June calls for above normal temperatures and equal chances of above normal or below normal precipitation.

NOAA: Coolest Winter Since 2001 for U.S.

The average temperature across both the contiguous U.S. and the globe during climatological winter (December 2007-February 2008) was the coolest since 2001, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. In terms of winter precipitation, Pacific storms, bringing heavy precipitation to large parts of the West, produced high snowpack that will provide welcome runoff this spring.
A complete analysis is available online.

U.S. Winter Temperature Highlights

In the contiguous United States, the average winter temperature was 33.2°F (0.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century average – yet still ranks as the coolest since 2001. It was the 54th coolest winter since national records began in 1895.

Winter temperatures were warmer than average from Texas to the Southeast and along the Eastern Seaboard, while cooler-than-average temperatures stretched from much of the upper Midwest to the West Coast.
With higher-than-average temperatures in the Northeast and South, the contiguous U.S. winter temperature-related energy demand was approximately 1.7 percent lower than average, based on NOAA’s Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index.

POLLEN FORECAST: March 27

Today 11.4 (High) on a scale of 0-12
3/28/2008 11.0 (High) on a scale of 0-12
3/29/2008 7.8 (Medium) on a scale of 0-12
3/30/2008 10.1 (High) on a scale of 0-12

Today's predominant pollen:Cedar/Juniper, Maple and Elm.

---Technical Discussion---The quantity of pollen grains in the air for Friday will be falling but stay in the extremely high range. This decrease is due to rising humidity.

Learn more about this month's featured pollen:

---Did You Know?---Medical research indicates that people rarely suffer from seasonal allergies at birth.

---Allergy Tip---People who suffer from allergies and asthma should make sure their bedrooms are located away from humid areas, such as the basement.

MOST TORNADO-PRONE CITIES DURING APRIL

As part of an ongoing company-funded research study of tornadic risk assessment, by means of the Site Assessment of Tornado Threat (SATT) software, VorTek has determined the rankings by month of the top twenty tornado-prone cities, with Nashville, Tennessee replacing Oklahoma City, Oklahoma as the most tornado-prone city for the month of April. The rankings, based on National Weather Service data from 1950 through 2006, are as follows:

RANK STATE ACF (%) DISTURBED LAND AREA (ACRES)
1 Nashville, TN .0537 432
2 Oklahoma City, OK .0526 423
3 Tulsa, OK .0505 406
4 Topeka, KS .0473 380
5 Wichita Falls, TX .0459 369
6 Huntsville, AL .0441 355
7 Shreveport, LA .0396 318
8 Ann Arbor, MI .0395 318
9 Little Rock, AR .0376 302
10 Birmingham, AL 0330 265
11 Cedar Rapids, IA .0294 236
12 Grand Rapids, MI .0250 201
13 Wichita, KS .0210 169
14 Des Moines, IA .0200 161
15 Mesquite, TX .0190 153
16 South Bend, IN .0186 150
17 Dallas, TX .0178 143
18 Garland, TX .0175 141
19 Lincoln, NE .0162 130
20 Cincinnati, OH .0141 113

The "ACF" (Annual Coverage Fraction) represents the average fraction of land area within a 20-mile radius of the city disturbed by tornadoes during April for the 57-year period from 1950 through 2006. The "disturbed land area" represents the average number of acres of land within a 20-mile radius of the city disturbed by tornadoes during April for the same 57-year period.

As you see in the chart above, TWO cities in Alabama made the TOP TEN! This further shows the reality of severe weather events in Alabama during the spring months, namely April.

Climate Fact: Ringed Seals and Warm Winters

Over the last 150 years, the average temperature of the Baltic Sea Basin has been rising at a rate of 0.14 degrees Fahrenheit per decade, which is slightly higher that the global trend of 0.09 degrees Fahrenheit per decade. This temperature increase has been most acutely felt during the winter, as the number of extremely cold days has decreased. The last ten winters have all been average or mild. One effect of this warming has been a change in the duration and thickness of the Sea’s winter ice cover. Over the last century, the length of the sea ice season has fallen by between 14 and 44 days. This reduction in ice has been linked to a decrease in the population of the endangered ringed seal, which, until this winter, appeared to be recovering after a century of over-hunting and pollution. The species nurses its young in ice lairs, and seal pups are dependent upon maternal care for about 40 days after birth. During this period, they grow in size and build up a layer of blubber, which protects them from the frigid waters. This winter has been the Basin’s warmest in almost 300 years, and the already retreating ice has exposed many of the ice lairs, which means that the pups have not had 40 days to prepare for the Sea. Few of the pups that were born this winter are expected to survive.

(Sources: The Helsinki Commission: “Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Area.” Baltic Sea Environmental Proceedings No. 111 (2007). Accessed Online 12 March 2008 and Kucharz, Christel “Warm Winter Kills Baby Seals.” ABC News, 11 March 2008. Accessed Online 12 March 2008 http://abcnews.go.com/International/GlobalWarming/Story?id=4428404&page=1>)

Suggested Reading!

NOAA: Coolest Winter Since 2001 for U.S., Globe

The average temperature across both the contiguous U.S. and the globe during climatological winter (December 2007-February 2008) was the coolest since 2001, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. In terms of winter precipitation, Pacific storms, bringing heavy precipitation to large parts of the West, produced high snowpack that will provide welcome runoff this spring.

Click Here for the Rest of the Story.

RED FLAG WARNING

RED FLAG WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

613 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 20S DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY...

FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 20S ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER...PROTECTED LOCATIONS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 AM AND 9 AM ON TUESDAY.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

Climate Fact: Timing is Everything

In the Netherlands, the time that Winter Moth caterpillars hatch has traditionally corresponded to when their food source, oak tree buds, come out. These caterpillars can only survive two to three days without food, and if they hatch before the oaks bud, they will not survive. The average January through April 15th temperature has increased over the past three decades, while the number of frost days during these months has not. These trends have corresponded to little or no change in the timing of the oak bud burst, but a steady advance to earlier dates in the year of the timing of the winter moth hatching.

(Source: Visser, ME and Holleman, LJM. “Warmer springs disrupt the synchrony of oak and winter moth phenology.” Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B (2001) 268, 289-294.)

POLLEN COUNT FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

The quantity of pollen grains in the air for Tuesday will be falling but will remain in the high range. This change results in part from rising relative humidity and relatively weaker winds.

Pollen and Allergy Fact: The quaking aspen, a member of the willow family, is well-named. Its foliage quivers in the slightest breeze, causing the leaves to glitter in the sunlight.

Allergy Tip: Water leaks in a home can instantly present mold problems.

Earth Gauge: Somethin’ in the Soil

Thinking about spring planting? If you live in a city environment, where soils may have been disturbed by construction, compacted, depleted of important nutrients, or contaminated by pollutants, it’s especially important to find out what shape your soil is in before you plant. Healthy soil with adequate nutrients is vital for healthy plants.

Early spring is a great time to test your soil (autumn is also a good time) – soil samples should be collected when the temperature is above 50 degrees Fahrenheit, and soil is fairly dry. Most local University Cooperative Extension Service offices offer soil testing and can help you interpret your results. If you live in an urban area, you may want to ask if the soil laboratory can also test for contaminants, including lead, arsenic, benzene, cyanide, and others.

Find tips for taking a soil sample from the Natural Resources Conservation Service: www.nrcs.usda.gov/FEATURE/backyard/nutmgt.html.

Find tips for reading soil test results from the National Gardening Association: www.garden.org/urbangardening/?page=interpreting-soil.

(Sources: Moss, William. “Moss in the City: Get the Scoop on Your Soil.” National Gardening Association, http://www.garden.org/urbangardening/index.php?page=get-the-scoop; Natural Resources Conservation Service. “Nutrient Management: In Your Backyard.” www.nrcs.usda.gov/FEATURE/backyard/nutmgt.html)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE FREEZE WARNING FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA VALID MONDAY MORNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT DIMINISHED LIKE EXPECTED...KEEPING CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREA WIDE. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN RURAL AND PROTECTED AREAS COULD STILL APPROACH 32 DEGREES FOR A COUPLE HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1 PM UNTIL 6 PM AS HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAYBE NECESSARY.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A FREEZE WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT EARLY TUESDAY FROM 1 AM UNTIL9 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN RURAL AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

Freeze Warning Cancelled for Sunday Night

The FREEZE WARNING for Sunday night is cancelled...

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has cancelled the freeze warning for Sunday night.

Winds across the area have not diminished as expected. This is causing temperatures to run a little higher than previously forecasted. As a result, widespread freezing temperatures are not expected by morning. However, a few isolated locations in rural and protected areas could still approach 32 degrees for an hour or two during the near daybreak.

A FREEZE WATCH remains in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday morning. Freezing temperatures will be possible Monday night with some readings dipping to the upper 20s in the normally colder, protected locations. The remainder of the CBS 42 viewing area will experience low temperatures falling into the lower 30s.

Freezing temperatures are possible between 1 am and 9 am on Tuesday.

A FREEZE WATCH means sub-freezing temperatures are possible. These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BIRMINGHAM AL332 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008...

FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START OFF THEWEEK....

A LATE COLD SNAP WILL BRING THE THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT...THREATENING AREA AGRICULTURAL AND HORTICULTURAL INTERESTS...AS WELL AS BACKYARD GARDENERS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THESOUTHEAST WILL ADVECT UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILLFALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP AND THE AIR MASS WILLBE VERY DRY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILLAPPROACH THE FREEZING MARK...ESPECIALLY IN PROTECTED AND LOW LYINGAREAS. IF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...A FREEZE WARNING WILLBE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITHTEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD OR COLDER...WITH FREEZINGCONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. A FREEZE WARNING MAYALSO BE NECESSARY ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH

FIRE WEATHER WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL546 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008...

DRIER AIRMASS TO CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER SUNDAY....

A DRY AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL RESULT INRELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THEAFTERNOON. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO FALL IN THE HIGH FIRE DANGER WILLBE EAST OF A TUSCALOOSA TO SELMA LINE...HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTSMIX OUT LOWER THAN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALL OF CENTRALALABAMA WOULD FALL IN THE CRITERIA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER POSSIBILITIES.

National Flood Safety Awareness Week - Friday: Flood Safety

FRIDAY: FLOOD SAFETY
These simple tips can help your viewers prepare for a flood, and take appropriate actions during and after a flooding event occurs.

Before A Flood…

􀂃 Develop a family disaster plan – learn what your flood risk is, find out how your community will warn you if a natural disaster occurs, and identify evacuation plans.
􀂃 Post emergency phone numbers and information in a central place in your home, and make sure family members know where to find them.
􀂃 Make sure smoke detectors and fire extinguishers work, and family members know how to use them.
􀂃 Gather emergency supplies – water, food, medications, first aid supplies, portable radio and batteries, and other necessary items – that will last for three days to one week.
􀂃 Keep important family documents in a water-proof and fire-resistant container to protect them.
􀂃 See Avoiding Flood Damage: A Checklist for Homeowners to learn about reducing the risk of flood damage in your home: www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/pdf/flood_damage.pdf.

During a Flood…

􀂃 Listen to local media or NOAA Weather Radio for important updates and information, and follow evacuation instructions given by local officials.
􀂃 Don’t drive if you don’t have to, and follow the safety tips provided by the Turn Around Don’t Drown™ campaign (Tuesday’s topic).
􀂃 Never allow children to play near storm drains, ditches, arroyos, or other areas subject to flooding.
􀂃 If floodwater is approaching, climb to higher ground.
􀂃 If you are preparing to evacuate and have time, move essential items to a higher floor in your home. Turn off utility main switches/valves if you are instructed to do so.
􀂃 Do not touch electrical equipment or wires if they are wet.

After a Flood…

􀂃 Get medical attention, if necessary.
􀂃 If your power is out, use a flashlight – candles or matches can be dangerous if gas lines are broken.
􀂃 Report any broken utility lines immediately.
􀂃 Boil drinking water, and have well water pumped-out and tested before use. Pay attention to public health warnings from local officials, and follow their directions.
􀂃 Throw out any food or drink that has come in contact with flood waters.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY.

A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LAST NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S AREAWIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S. WITH GROUND MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL LOCATIONS.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOORPLANTS MAY BE KILLED OR DAMAGED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROPERLYPROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

Frost Advisory

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY.

A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT.WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S AREA WIDE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S. WITH GROUND MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL LOCATIONS.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED OR DAMAGED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROPERLY PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

National Flood Safety Awareness Week

THURSDAY: FLOOD INSURANCE

In an area at risk for floods, there is a 26 percent chance that a flood will occur during the course of a 30-year mortgage, compared to only a nine percent chance of a fire! The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is designed to help protect communities from flood damage, and also provide people with flood insurance.

􀂃 Learn more about NFIP and your flood risk at
www.floodsmart.gov.

􀂃 View flooding scenarios - snowmelt, flash flood, new
development, dams/levees, and tropical storm – at www.floodsmart.gov/floodsmart/pages/your_flood_risk/floo
d_scenarios.jsp

First Day of S-P-R-I-N-G-!

Early this morning, at approximately 12:48 a.m. Central time, the official start of Spring was underway! That's the moment when the sun is lined up exactly over the Earth's equator.

In the Northern Hemisphere, Spring begins on March 20th and includes the months of: March, April, May and part of June. This is when the axis of the Earth, just like during the summer months, is tilted towards the sun, and we have longer days. On a daily basis, we'll see a few extra minutes of daylight. Sunset today is at 6:59pm and tomorrow it will be at 7:00pm.

Temperatures will also begin to warm up, causing flowering plants to start blooming again. Pear trees and dogwoods are already blooming across the state. That's just in time for Easter this coming Sunday!

It's going to be a beautiful the next couple of days with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 60's to lower 70's. Enjoy the first few days of Spring!

Beach Forecast (Thu-Sat)

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 MPH DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH YESTERDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH UNSETTLED SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ROUGH CONDITIONS ON BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS OPERATING SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH THIS MORNING..

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM THIS MORNING.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then clearing, with a high near 67. Breezy, with a north wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

TONIGHT: Clear, with a low around 49. East wind around 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny, with a high near 68. East wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. North wind around 5 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Breezy, with a north wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

MARINE FORECAST:

TODAY: NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS CHOPPY TO ROUGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING EAST EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS A LIGHT CHOP. FRIDAY EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS A LIGHT CHOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT: SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS SMOOTH.

SATURDAY: NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS A LIGHT CHOP.

SATURDAY NIGHT: WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS CHOPPY TO ROUGH.

National Flood Safety Awareness Week

WEDNESDAY: FLOODS AND OTHER RELATED PHENOMENA

􀂃 Tropical Cyclone Inland Flooding – Heavy rainfall associated with hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical storms often causes more damage than high winds. As a matter of fact, nearly 60 percent of deaths associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S. since 1970 have been tied to inland flooding. Slow-moving storms can mean that heavy rains persist over one area, increasing the risk for flooding.

􀂃 Snowmelt Flooding – Snowpacks hold water, and when snow begins to melt, flooding can occur if the amount of snowmelt exceeds the capacity for soils and surface waters (rivers, lakes, streams) to store water. The Northeast, North Central and Western U.S. are particularly vulnerable to snowpack flooding, and eight of the most significant floods in the Twentieth Century were snowmelt related.

􀂃 Ice Jams – In northern parts of the U.S., ice covers many lakes and rivers during the winter. Sometimes, as ice breaks up and flows downstream, it can pile up at obstructed areas (such as narrow parts of the river or bridges) and cause upstream flooding. Montana and New York have reported the most ice jams, followed by Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

􀂃 Debris Flows – After a wildfire, debris flows (mud flows) can be a serious risk. When rain falls on burned slopes, water can pick up speed quickly, carrying soils and rocks along the way. Debris flows can damage bridges, roadways, culverts, and buildings, and can cause injuries and death.


􀂃 Flash Floods – Flash flooding usually happens when heavy, localized rainfall causes water to rise rapidly in a low lying area or stream. Flash floods can happen quickly and without warning, and are often the result of slowly moving thunderstorms or multiple storms occurring in a short amount of time.

Outlook Update

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WINDS OF UP TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 PM...ROUGHLY ALONG AND EASTOF A LINE FROM GADSDEN...TO ALEXANDER CITY...TO TROY.

THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND NOON...AND EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 6 PM.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUTTHE POSSIBILITY OF ANYTHING MORE THAN GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE EVEN LESS THAN EXPECTED EARLIER TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH 7 PM ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLYNORTHWESTERLY LATE TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTERSUNSET.

Mesoscale Update (What happened to Severe Wx Threat?)

UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

STORMS REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR IN DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE CONVECTION. LATEST RUC13 RUNS CONTINUES TO DELAY ANY DESTABILIZATION FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE QUITE A BIT OF DOUBT THAT WE WILL SEE EITHER SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT OR SURFACE HEATING TO AMOUNT TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CHASING THE DOWNWARD TREND A BIT. SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO ENTER WESTERN ALABAMA.

PREVIOUS CONCERNS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT ARE NOT CURRENTLY PANNING OUT THIS FAR SOUTH...AND WITH BEST H8 AND H3 WINDS EXITING NORTHEASTWARD... BEGINNING TO NOT BE AS CONCERNED WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR ANY CELLS THAT MAY FORM.SO FOR NOW...WILL PARE BACK THE SEVERE THREAT TO JUST MENTION OF STRONG STORMS.

REALLY DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET OUT OF HAND...BUT AS ALWAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CONDITIONS FOR ANY DEVIATIONS TO THOSE EXPECTATIONS. ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND UPDATED TO REFLECT TRENDS.

Forecast Discussion

LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXITING STAGE RIGHT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED EMBEDDED QUASI-LINEAR FEATURE NOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHERN DE KALB COUNTIES. RADAR NOTED 30-40 KT WINDS ~3KFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THAT SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON.

RAINFALL AROUND THE AREA HAS BEEN QUITE VARIABLE THUS FAR THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF AROUND ONE TO ONE-HALF INCH OVER A NARROW SWATH FROM CULLMAN COUNTY THROUGH MARSHALL COUNTY...AND A GENERAL COVERAGE OF AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH.

ATTENTION IS NOW FOCUSED ON THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. SOME WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED RECENTLY FURTHER NORTH IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THINK THAT WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

AT THIS TIME...THINK SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS SLIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG OR PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AT WHICH TIME BETTER DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS THE STRONG 850-925 MB 60 KT LOW LVL JET PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.IN ITS WAKE...WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE STILL ~40-50 KTS...SO WE MAY SEE SOME STRONG GUSTS IN ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY UP THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER...COMBINED WITH FAIRLY LOW WET BULB FREEZING LEVEL AT~9.5KFT...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.BUT...AGAIN THINK THE PROBABILITY FOR THAT NOW IS SLIGHT.

Short Term Forecast Until 11am

A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTAT 40 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 11 AM. SOUTH WINDS WILLCONTINUE TO BE STRONG...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCHTHROUGH 11 AM...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.

Strong Storms in Autauga and Chilton County until 10:15am

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR AUTAUGA AND CHILTON COUNTIES UNTIL1015 AM CDT...

AT 930 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONGTHUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MULBERRY TO WHITE HALL TO 6MILES SOUTHEAST OF FOSTORIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.*

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE... MULBERRY. BILLINGSLEY. ENTERPRISE. VERBENA. MITCHELL DAM.THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREELIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

South AL Storms Intensifying

A line of thunderstorms south of Montgomery has intensified. The NWS has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for:

WESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTH CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EASTERN WILCOX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... until 9:45am.

As far as the CBS 42 viewing area is concerned (Central Alabama), I think we will begin to see storms intensify by mid-morning as we get a little bit more daytime heating. We will certainly keep you posted throughout the day as conditions warrant on CBS42.COM and CBS42-TV.

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR AUTAUGA...DALLAS AND LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 843 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WHITES BLUFF TO WATSONVILLE TO FOUNTAIN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OFSELMONT-WEST SELMONT TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMDEN TO 26 MILES EAST OF GROVE HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.*

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE... OLD CAHABA PARK. SKYHARBOR AIRPORT. SELMA. TYLER. ROBERT F. HENRY LOCK AND DAM. DAWSON MILL.THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

Short Term Forecast until 10am

SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVEEAST AT 50 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING...OUT AHEAD OFA LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECTCENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 10 AM. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BESTRONG...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONSWILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH THROUGH 10AM...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

Severe Potential Today

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191208Z - 191415Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW IN THE NEAR TERM. BUT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD STILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

PRONOUNCED MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY FACTOR MINIMIZING THE SEVERE THREAT TO THIS POINT. INHIBITION FOR WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL...AND WEAK COOLING ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL JET EXIT REGION HAS NOT BEEN SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME IT. AND...IT APPEARS THAT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ABOUT TO BECOME CUT-OFF. HEATING OF A BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MID 60S DEW POINTS...COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE...NOW STILL OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION...COULD STILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE NOW SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH WESTERN ALABAMA. BUT...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME.

OTHERWISE...AT LEAST WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC UPDRAFT ROTATION COULD STILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS...EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 JET AXIS SPREADING ACROSS ALABAMA. BUT...A RELATIVELY COOL/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH FLOW EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE PROBABLY WILL MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR TORNADOES.

Mesoscale Update 7:15am

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

SQUALL LINE THAT WAS CROSSING MISSISSIPPI OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN STEADILY LOOSING INTENSITY AND FORM...NOW RESEMBLING A MORE MUDDLED MESS OF TS STRETCHING THE LENGTH OF MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW ENTERING WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT MARKED BY A SHARP T/TD GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE STILL IN THE M/U60S...WITH SOME OBS REPORTING IN AT 70F NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW.

CLOSER TO HOME...DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE CWFA WITH EASTERN ARREARS IN THE M/U50S...WHILE KMSL SITS AT 63F. AS THE HIGH SHEAR/MARGINAL INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO MIGRATE INTO THE CWFA...CONTINUED WEAK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELL CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED...TRENDS AT THIS POINT AWAY FROM SUCH A SCENARIO.CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY FOR RENEWED CONVECTION BY MID MORNING AHEAD AND ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT TRUCKS THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREATS DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AS IT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR MESOSCALE AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008

UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

WITH WEAKENING OF STORMS IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE POINTING AGAINST A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN SPITE OF IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ALOFT...THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY.

WE ARE STILL WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY FOR LATER THIS MORNING...IN THE 15Z TO 17Z TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE NAM AND RUC OF SOME MID LEVEL COOLING...WHICH COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING...MAY SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. STILL THINKING THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THUNDERSTORM WINDS...BUT AT 15Z...RUC13 0-3KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AND BAND OF MUCAPE OF ABOUT 500 J/KG ROUGHLY ALONG A JASPER/TUSCALOOSA/ UNIONTOWN AXIS INDICATE THE TORNADO THREAT IS STILL WORTH WATCHING.

ANOTHER CONCERN NOT YET TO BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED...IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RE-FIRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. SUFFICIENT CAPE/INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE...BUT UPPER WARM UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND DECREASING HELICITY/SHEAR APPEAR TO KEEP THE THREAT MARGINAL AT BEST.


.

Not Out of the Woods Yet...

Speaking with the National Weather Service this morning, they have been in contact with the Storm Prediction Center.

As the line of strong storms continue to approach and cross the Western Boarder of Alabama, they have weakened a bit. Just enough that the Tornado Watch in Mississippi will be allowed to expire. As of this writing the SPC has decided against issuing a Watch (Tornado or Thunderstorm) until things pick back up a bit.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK - Update

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008

516 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
TRAVERSE THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 7AM
CDT. HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT THE
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS THREAT
WILL BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE WILL BE FELT NONETHELESS.

THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEHIND THIS SQUALL LINE...AND SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE MORE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AROUND 4 OR 5 PM.

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED...AS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...SO THIS ADVISORY WILL END AT 7PM CDT.

Storms Around the Corner

As the Storms continue to approach the Alabama State Line, We are already seeing some pretty breezy conditions. Infact, I would call them downright WINDY!

Here are some Obs from around the area:

Anniston
Wind Speed: S 14 G 35 MPH

Birmingham International Airport
Wind Speed: S 12 MPH

Tuscaloosa Regional Airport
Wind Speed: SE 17 G 25 MPH

Posey Field Airport
Wind Speed: S 14 G 26 MPH

Calera, Shelby County Airport
Wind Speed: SE 15 MPH

Gadsden Municipal Automatic Weather Observing
Wind Speed: S 12 G 18 MPH

.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS INTO NRN/CNTRL AL AND PARTS OF
MIDDLE/ERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 134...

VALID 190955Z - 191200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 134 CONTINUES.

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...BUT A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...PERHAPS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z
EXPIRATION OF CURRENT WW.

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT SUPERCELLS NOW NORTHEAST OF
JACKSON...NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE...WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF A 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
500 KT JET STREAK WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS STILL COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASING TORNADIC
POTENTIAL AS CELLS PROGRESS INTO AREAS NEAR/WEST AND SOUTH OF
STARKVILLE AND COLUMBUS BY AROUND 12Z. SLOW WARMING/ MOISTENING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THIS REGION...AS SUB
1000 MB SURFACE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

CONTINUING SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND 12Z IS MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MAINTAINED A
DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE EAST OF WW 134. BUT...AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT COULD PERSIST...AT LEAST WITH
STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW
TRACK...THROUGH AREAS OF ALABAMA TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
BIRMINGHAM...POSSIBLY PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 15-17Z.

..KERR.. 03/19/2008

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 190043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT FOR THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...

...LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...
SURFACE ANALYSES CONFIRM THE CONSOLIDATION OF A 997 MB LOW NEAR TYR
IN NE TX. THIS LOW WILL TRANSLATE NEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS AR TO WRN
TN ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX
FROM CENTRAL/S TX. S OF THE LOW...A REMNANT DRYLINE IS BEING
OVERTAKEN BY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS E TX/LA/MS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN
THE WARM SECTOR...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A
LOOSE BAND FROM NW LA INTO SW AR. THIS CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO
ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...LIKELY DUE TO THE ORIGINATION OF
THE UPDRAFTS JUST ABOVE THE LAYER OF STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR FROM
THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONES IN AN ANAFRONTAL FLOW REGIME. SOME EWD
ACCELERATION OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
LA/MS...AND A NARROW BAND OF STORMS SHOULD STILL REMAIN TIED TO THE
FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS 64-67 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
SPREAD NWD FROM SE LA INTO CENTRAL MS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIMIT THE ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE
MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO BE BASED VERY NEAR THE
GROUND.

VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS /UP TO 70 KT SSWLY FLOW AT BOTH 850
MB AND 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2/...BUT
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SUCH A
CONFIGURATION SUPPORTS A NARROW FORCED LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS AND AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. MORE
DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS SRN AR WHERE THE LOOSE BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. STILL...A SERIES OF SHORT N-S BOWING
SEGMENTS PROPAGATING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE THIS AREA.

..THOMPSON.. 03/19/2008

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

739 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

TONIGHT.

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN ALABAMA AROUND 5 AM AND LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA.WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ALL ACTIVITY EXITING SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY 4 PM. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THREATS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME TYPE OF WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

National Flood Safety Awareness Week

TUESDAY: TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN™ (TADD)

Turn Around Don’t Drown™ is the National Weather Service campaign designed to
warn people about the dangers of driving or walking through flood waters. According
to National Weather Service, more people die each year from flooding than from any
other severe weather event. And, more than half of flood-related deaths occur in a
vehicle. Share these simple tips with your viewers, and remind them to “Turn Around
Don’t’ Drown!”

􀂃 Listen to your local media or NOAA Weather Radio for warnings about
flooding and flash flooding.

􀂃 If flooding occurs, steer clear of low areas – ditches, canyons, culverts,
washes, etc.

􀂃 Never walk or drive through a flooded area! Just six-inches of flowing water
can knock you off your feet, and only two-feet of water can float a vehicle.

􀂃 Avoid camping or parking your car along stream or river banks.

􀂃 Stay alert when driving at night – it can be much harder to see washed-out
roadways and flood waters in the dark.

􀂃 Learn more about the TADD Campaign: www.weather.gov/os/water/tadd/.

Hazardous Weather Outlook for Late Tonight into Wednesday

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WEATHER SYSTEM TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS 1 AM...WITH THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA BY 5 AM. AS WITH EVERY SYSTEM...SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ALL ACTIVITY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY 6 PM. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THREATS WITH THIS SYSTEM.WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME TYPE OF WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

Current U.S. Drought Monitor

A powerful storm system will be approaching central Alabama late tonight into Wednesday morning. This system is a pretty slow mover and is capable of producing heavy amounts of rain. One inch of rain, with locally heavier amounts, is expected with this system.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A LAKE WINDADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDTWEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN ACTION WILL START IN THE WEST AS EARLY AS 3 AM...AND END AS LATE AS 3 PM IN THE EAST. AS WITH EVERY SYSTEM...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TIMING AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL.SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

National Flood Safety Awareness Week

This week (March 17-21) is National Flood Safety Awareness Week, designed to highlight important flood-related topics and tips. This year, the National Weather Service has identified flood safety themes for each day of the week – please see the attached fact sheet on for more information about each topic:

Monday: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Tuesday: Turn Around Don't Drown (TADD) Campaign
Wednesday: Floods and Other Related Phenomena
Thursday: Flood Insurance
Friday: Flood Safety


MONDAY: ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)

The NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service provides forecast information about the occurrence, magnitude,and uncertainty tied to water-related events – floods, droughts, and others – to help make decisions. For example,flood forecast maps and information about observed river levels may help local officials know when to evacuate citizens from a potential flood area. Learn more about AHPS: www.weather.gov/os/water/Ahps.shtml.

What to do During a Tornado

Seek shelter immediately when a Tornado Warning is issued for your area!

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement or in the lowest area of your home. If there is no basement, go to the center of an interior room on the lowest level away from corners, windows, doors, and outside walls. Put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. Get under a sturdy table and use your arms to protect your head and neck.

If you are in a vehicle or mobile home, get out immediately and go to the lowest floor of a sturdy, nearby building or storm shelter. Mobile homes, even if tied down, offer little protection from tornadoes.

If you are outside and no shelter is available, lie flat in a nearby ditch and cover your head with your hands. Be aware of the potential for flooding, as heavy rains often accompany severe thunderstorms. Do NOT get under a bridge or overpass. You are safer in a low, flat location. Never try to outrun a tornado in your vehicle. Instead, seek shelter immediately in a sturdy shelter. Watch out for flying debris and make sure to protect your head with blankets or pillows. Most fatalities and injuries are caused from flying debris.

Be sure to have a severe weather plan ready to go with your family and make sure all members know where to go and what to do when a Tornado Warning is issued for your area. It’s a good idea to practice a tornado drill with your family at least once a year.

Potential for Severe Wx Tuesday into Wednesday

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE IS A MAJOR CONCERN ALONG WITH HAIL. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...VERYSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR YET ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE AREA. AS WITH EVERY SYSTEM...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH.

STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS THIS SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

ON MONDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND REMAIN STRONG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OFWIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

Sat. March 15--2 Confirmed Tornadoes

...STORM SURVEY TEAMS FIND TORNADO DAMAGE IN TWO COUNTIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED THE DAMAGE IN BLOUNT COUNTY JUST SOUTHEAST OF ONEONTA. IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT THE DAMAGE WAS THE RESULT OF A TORNADO.

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST EAST OF COUNTY ROAD 27, APPROXIMATELY5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ONEONTA. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTH OF RIVERROAD AND ENTERED THE HIGHLAND LAKE COMMUNITY. THE TORNADO CROSSEDCOUNTY ROAD 29 NEAR THE APPALACHIAN COMMUNITY. THE APPALACHIAN SCHOOLPROPERTY SUSTAINED DAMAGE, BUT THE SCHOOL WAS SPARED ANY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENED AS IT NEARLY PARALLELED COUNTY ROAD 12. THE TORNADO LIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 12 AND US HIGHWAY 231. ALONG THE ENTIRE PATH, SEVERAL HUNDRED TREES WERE EITHER SNAPPED OFF OR WERE UPROOTED. A FEW DOZEN CHICKEN HOUSES WERE DAMAGED AND MANY WERE DESTROYED. MANY OUT BUILDINGS, GARAGES, AND SHEDS WERE DESTROYED. AT LEAST 25 HOMES SUSTAINED MAJOR DAMAGE WITH ANOTHER FEW DOZEN THAT RECEIVED MINOR DAMAGE. AT LEAST ONE MOBILE HOME WAS DESTROYED AND A FEW MORE WERE DAMAGED. AT LEAST 6 COWS AND HUNDREDS OF CHICKENS WERE KILLED BY FLYING DEBRIS. IN SOME INSTANCES, THE ROOF DEBRIS FROM DAMAGED STRUCTURES WAS BLOWN OVER ONE HALF MILE DOWNSTREAM. A FEW FEED SILOS WERE TIPPED OVER AND ONE ROLLED AT LEAST ONE HALF MILE.

THE TORNADO DAMAGE PATH WAS APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES LONG AND WAS 675YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT. THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF-2 ON THEENHANCED FUJITA SCALE. THE MOST EXTENSIVE DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH WINDS BETWEEN 125 AND 130 MPH.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED THE DAMAGE INSOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY. IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT THE DAMAGE WASTHE RESULT OF A TORNADO.

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 9, NEAR THEINTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 6 AND 31. THE TORNADO MOVED EASTNORTHEAST AND CROSSED COUNTY ROADS 33 AND 10 BEFORE LIFTING JUST EASTOF COUNTY ROAD 10. 1 BARN DAMAGED AND 1 BARN DESTROYED. 3 HOMESDAMAGED. HUNDREDS OF TREES SNAPPED OFF OR BLOWN DOWN. THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF-2 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES AND WAS 50 YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT. THE DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH WINDS NEAR 115 MPH.

Is Spring Almost Here?

Yes! Spring will be here officially later this week. We have the first day of spring on the vernal equinox which will fall on this coming Thursday, March 20. The vernal equinox occurs when the sun is directly located over the Earth's equator... which happens on March 20th or 21st every year. The word equinox is derived from latin words meaning equal and night. This is because on the day of the equinox there is equal amount of time between day and night. There is also an autumnal equinox in the month of September. Happy spring!

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BIRMINGHAM AL
940 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008.

UPDATE...EVENING DISCUSSION...

A WELL DEFINED FRONT WAS NEAR TROY ALABAMA AT 9 PMTHIS EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THEFRONT...WITH LOWER 50S NORTH OF FRONT. COOLER AIR LAGS FRONT BYSEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SEALABAMA ALONG FRONT...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF PIKE AND BARBOURCOUNTIES BY 10 PM. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WERE LOCATED ACROSSTENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...BUT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL NOT LIKELY MAKEMUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT.FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE BASEDON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND WILL RAISE MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES.

58/ROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
406 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
ALZ020-152145-CHEROKEE-406 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008...

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CDT...AT 403 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONGTHUNDERSTORM NEAR SAND ROCK...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF CENTRE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.MARBLE SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE... SAND ROCK. CENTRE. GAYLESVILLE. WATERHOUSE.A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCALTELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGSCONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
$$
03

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL332 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHERN CLEBURNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...* UNTIL 400 PM CDT*

AT 330 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 18 MILES WEST OF NEWELL...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OXFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... NEWELL BY 355 PM CDT... GRAHAM AND RANBURNE BY 400 PM CDT...WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BREAK LARGE TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE SOMEDAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO SMALLER STRUCTURES.A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

IF A TORNADOIS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDYSTRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENINGFOR EASTERN ALABAMA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3360 8532 3337 8528 3341 8573 3356 8576 3356 8575 3358 8574TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 270DEG 35KT 3348 8568
$$
12/SIRMON

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0422

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0422

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0208 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CENTRAL/NWRN GA...

SMALL PART OF NERN AL-- WRN/CENTRAL SUBSET OF WW 119.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 151908Z - 152015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.

AS ADJOINING WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZEGRADUALLY...CONVECTION IS BUILDING AND BECOMING SVR INVOF AL/GASTATE LINE...ALONG WRN SEGMENT OF COMBINED SFC WARM FRONT ANDOUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SFC WINDS IN WARM SECTOR HAVE VEERED IN RESPONSETO EWD SHIFT OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NERNGA TORNADIC STORM...AND ASSOCIATED MESOCIRCULATION.

HOWEVER...BULKSHEAR ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NWRN GA WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE -- E.G. ROUGHLY60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE FROM FFC RAOB AND RUCSOUNDINGS...AND 0-1 KM SRH STILL EXCEEDING 200 J/KG BASED ON VWP ANDRAOB DATA. MODIFIED 18Z FFC RAOB INDICATES THAT SFC TEMPS LOW-MID70S F AND DEW POINTS LOW 60S SUPPORT MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND VERYWEAK CINH.

STRENGTHENING SUPERCELLS OVER CALHOUN/CLEBURNE COUNTIESAL GA AT 19Z ARE MOVING ENE 40-45 KT.

ASSOCIATED RISK OF DAMAGINGHAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES COULD AFFECT ATL METRO AREA DURING20-21Z TIME FRAME THEN ENEWD TOWARD AREAS NEAR AND JUST N AHN INENSUING 1-2 HOURS

..EDWARDS.. 03/15/2008

TORNADO WARNING

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
152 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CLEBURNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 215 PM CDT
* AT 149 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FRUITHURST...OR 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF HEFLIN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MARS HILLS AND MUSCADINE BY 200 PM CDT...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN ALABAMA.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.
LAT...LON 3388 8536 3378 8535 3377 8534 3373 8534
3371 8533 3366 8553 3383 8559 3384 8559
3390 8538
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 253DEG 30KT 3378 8546
$$
12/SIRMON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

WUUS54 KBMX 151830
SVRBMX
ALC015-029-151915-
/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0100.080315T1830Z-080315T1915Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
130 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEAVER...FORT MCCLELLAN...ANNISTON...
NORTHEASTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 124 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SAKS...OR NEAR ANNISTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FRUITHURST BY 155 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN ALABAMA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...

CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3368 8533 3365 8587 3374 8590 3391 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 259DEG 43KT 3372 8576
$$
12/SIRMON