Tornado Watch Until 6pm

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 950 AM UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES EAST OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW 162...WW 163... DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN AL SWWD TO CENTRAL LA WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING E/SEWD THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF WATCH AREA S OF THE LINE IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG AND STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON..BOTH NEAR THE LINE AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Significant WX Alert for Marion until 10am

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...AT 914 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONGTHUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VINATO BYRD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OFHACKLEBURG TO DETROIT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE... WESTON. RANKIN FITE AIRPORT. HACKLEBURG. TESSNER. PEARCES MILL. TUCKER.

Marion County --Significant WX Alert until 9:15am

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 915 AM CDT...AT 828 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONGTHUNDERSTORM NEAR TREMONT...OR 8 MILES EAST OF FULTON...MOVINGNORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE... SHOTSVILLE. WESTON. HACKLEBURG. TESSNER.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCALTELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGSCONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

Watch May Be Issued Later this Morning

VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 161/162 CONTINUE UNTIL 16Z...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. SOUTH/EAST OF WATCHES 161/162...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY MID MORNING OR SO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LA/CENTRAL MS INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL.

PRE-COLD FRONTAL STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TN/FAR NORTHWEST AL AND NORTHERN MS TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE AR/LA BORDER AS OF 1245Z. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS REFLECT A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THE EXISTING LINE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED THROUGH THE MORNING OWING TO INSOLATION/HEATING...WHILE QUASI-DISCRETE PRE-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS WELL. 12Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM SHREVEPORT LA REFLECTS ONLY A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS.

MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM SHREVEPORT/JACKSON/BIRMINGHAM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN LA INTO CENTRAL AL BY MID/LATE MORNING. GIVEN THE WEAK CAPPING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 KT OR GREATER WITH THE WARM SECTOR...SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL BECOME A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE OTHERWISE POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL.

Severe Outlook Today/Tonight

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STARTING AS EARLY AS 9 AM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND LASTING AS LATE AS 3 AM SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.THE STORMS WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE...THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A LINEFROM MILLPORT TO JASPER. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE SQUALL LINEWILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CARRROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...ONEONTA...AND ANNISTON.SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 AND NORTH OF I-85 BETWEEN 3 PM CDT AND 9 PM CDT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVEREWEATHER...THE SLOW MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25MPH.

Severe Weather Potential Today

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAYAND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STARTING AS EARLY AS NOON AND LASTING AS LATE AS 3 AM FRIDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. THE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO COME IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE...THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE LIKELY AFTER 3 PM WEST AND NORTHWEST...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS BETWEEN 8 ANDMIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LESS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS GENERALLYAFTER MIDNIGHT...AS SOME WEAKENING OF THE LINE IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

Updated Outlook for Today and Tomorrow

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS UPTO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE FROM GEORGIA INTO EAST ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER FORAFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY CONTINUES TO INCREASE.SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STARTING AS EARLY AS 2 PM AND LASTING AS LATE AS 3 AM SATURDAY. THE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO COME IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE...THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...OR FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE...COULD ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES.