Hail in Calera 3:45am

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6PM

TORNADO WATCH 119 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 21 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA:
AUTAUGA CHILTON COOSA ELMORE LOWNDES MONTGOMERY SHELBY ST. CLAIR TALLADEGA CALHOUN CHAMBERS CLAY CLEBURNE LEE MACON RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA CHEROKEE ETOWAH BULLOCK

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALABASTER...ALEXANDER CITY...ANNISTON...ASHLAND...AUBURN...CENTRE...CLANTON...COLUMBIANA...FORT DEPOSIT...GADSDEN...HEFLIN...JACKSONVILLE...LANETT...LINEVILLE...LOWNDESBORO...MILLBROOK...MONTGOMERY...MOODY...OPELIKA...PELHAM...PELL CITY...PHENIX CITY...PRATTVILLE...ROANOKE...ROCKFORD...SYLACAUGA...TALLADEGA...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...VALLEY AND WETUMPKA.

Increase Tornado Threat

TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SFC BOUNDARY...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL SET UP. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN/NERN GA...WHICH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH SFC MOIST ADVECTION FROM REGION OF HIGHER DEW POINTS NOW OVER SERN AL/SWRN GA...S OF SRN WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. STG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST WITH FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL.

Severe Weather Outlook for Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A VERNON...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...CENTRE LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A VERNON...CHILTON...PHENIX CITY LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85.A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 7 PM FOR SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1255 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF
HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF CENTREVILLE ALABAMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 111...WW 112...WW
113...WW 114...WW 115...

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST FROM MS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NRN HALF OF AL NEXT FEW HOURS. MCS
SHOULD BE SUSTAINED BY MASS INFLOW DUE TO INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE MASS WITH ATTENDANT
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND HAZARDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...CARBIN

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AL...MIDDLE TN AND NW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 150539Z - 150645Z

A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

DOWNSTREAM OF LOW AMPLITUDE...BUT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AREA OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FORCING IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED REGIME FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT...DRY MID-LEVELS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WHICH COULD PENETRATE SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION.

KERR.. 03/15/2008

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 150336Z - 150500Z

MCS OVER SRN AR/NRN LA SHOULD PROPAGATE/DEVELOP EWD AS SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT BENEATH EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL WLY JET ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL RATES WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN LARGER MCS CLUSTER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST GENERALLY JUST N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND TXK TO 20 N JAN TO 25 N MEI. ONGOING MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS HAS PRIMARILY BEEN LOCATED ALONG/N OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FOCUSES ASCENT EWD. DESPITE SLOWLY INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS S OF THE FRONT /NOTED IN RECENT ANALYSES/...EWD PENETRATION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SUCH THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LARGELY BE LARGE HAIL E OF TORNADO WATCH 111.

..GRAMS.. 03/15/2008