Climate Fact: Tanganyika Troubles

One of the most important sources of animal protein in East Africa is being threatened by rising temperatures. Over the past few decades, the average air temperature in the region around Africa’s Lake Tanganyika (which sits on the borders of Congo, Zambia, Tanzania and Burundi) has warmed by about one degree Fahrenheit. This has corresponded to an increase in the Lake’s surface temperature and a decrease in the average regional wind velocity. These trends have made the water in the Lake more stable. This means that there is less mixing, which moves nutrients around in the water and prevents them from settling on the lake bottom, where they are inaccessible to most life. The recent slow-down in water movement has resulted in a decrease in available nutrients and 20 percent decline in the total mass of phytoplankton, tiny organisms that use the sun’s energy to build bodies out of these nutrients and ultimately feed all other life in the Lake. This decline in phytoplankton mass has translated into a 30 percent decline in the fish yields that come out of the lake. Until recently, Lake Tanganyika supplied 25 to 40 percent of the animal protein consumed by the populations in the four countries it borders.

(Source: O’Reilly, CM et al. “Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa.” Nature 424 (2003): 766-768.)

Latest U.S. Drought Monitor

Rainfall amounts during the past week were generally below average across the southern half of Central Alabama...while the northern half of the area received above normal rainfall. However...there has been little change in the drought situation across Central Alabama. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates D2 Severe to D3 Extreme Drought conditions north and east of a line from near Haleyville to Gordo to Uniontown to Lowndesboro to Auburn. Remaining areas to the south and west are in D0 Abnormally Dry to D1 Moderate Drought conditions.

The Drought Monitor classifies drought within one of these five categories:

D0...Abnormally Dry
D1...Moderate Drought
D2...Severe Drought
D3...Extreme Drought
D4...Exceptional Drought

Rainfall averaged one to three inches north of a line from near Vernon to Lafayette during the past week. Areas south of this line generally received less than an inch of rain. So far in May... rainfall has averaged from one and a half to four inches...although areas in extreme Southeast Alabama around Troy have received less than an inch. For the year...rainfall has averaged from seventeen to twenty five inches. For the month of May...average rainfall is from four and one quarter to four and three quarter inches.
Some precipitation amounts for Central Alabama from January 1st through May 14th:(For up to the most recent climate report...click on the city.)
Birmingham
22.88
Montgomery
17.11
Anniston
18.50
Tuscaloosa
19.05
Calera
25.09
Troy
19.50

SUMMERTIME LIKE T'STORMS (THU-SUN)

SUMMERTIME LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
520 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT AREA WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

Earth Gauge: Beneficial Biking

According to the 2006 American Community Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau, 84 percent of Alabama residents drove to work alone, less than one percent used public transportation, and two percent walked or used another alternate form of transportation. Choosing alternative transportation - walking, biking, or using transit - can save a typical work commuter about 600 dollars and 1200 miles on their car each year. It also helps alleviate traffic congestion, saves time, and protects air quality.

May is Bike to Work Month, this is Bike to Work Week, and today is Bike to Work Day - the perfect time to try two-wheeling to work! Research has shown that the length of about half of all car trips – three miles – can be covered as quickly on a bike when parking and traffic delays are taken into account.

Learn more about Bike to Work Week, sponsored by the League of American Bicyclists: http://www.bikeleague.org/programs/bikemonth/.
Get bicycle safety tips from the Federal Highway Administration: http://www.bicyclinginfo.org/education/resource/fhwa.html.

Weather is not cooperating? Try a new bus route, hop on the train, or call a friend to carpool.

(Sources: US Census, American Fact Finder. Alabama: Selected Housing Characteristics, 2006. factfinder.census.gov; It All Adds Up to Cleaner Air: Alternate Modes of Transportation. http://www.italladdsup.gov/pdfs/fall/2006Fall_ConsumerFactSheet.doc; League of American Bicyclists. "Ride for the Environment." http://www.bikeleague.org/resources/why/environment.php; McKay, K. and J. Bonnin. “True Green: 100 Everyday Ways You Can Contribute to A Healthier Planet.” The National Geographic Society, Washington, DC.)

Work Week Outlook

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 9 PM MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Outlook Sunday-Friday

ISOLATED...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN NOON AND 9 PM. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

Outdoor Weekend Festivites Are On!

Finally, a weekend with nice weather!

If headed out to the Regions Charity Classic today, clouds will gradually dissapate allowing for partly cloudy skies by the afternoon hours. Temperatures will top out below average for this time of year with highs climbing to the low 70 to mid 70's by late afternoon.

Are you going to Art on the Rocks tonight? If so, take a light wrap or jacket as temperatures will fall quickly under clear skies. Lows tonight will fall to the upper 40's to low 50's.

Nice conditions will prevail on Saturday so get outdoors and enjoy. If your going to Sloss Furnace for some barbeque or taking your pet to Doo Dah Day you will have some great spring time weather. We will start the morning off on the chilly side, but with mostly sunny skies across central Alabama temperatures will warm up quickly. Highs will top out right in the upper 70's to low 80's

If you have outdoor plans on Sunday, try to get them in during the first half of the day as a slight chance of showers and storms return by the afternoon.

Weekend Outlook

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LINGERING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WAVES OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALABAMA SUNDAYAFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

530 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM...AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL COULD DEVELOP...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LINGERING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
526 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY. THE CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

Mother's Day Severe Weather Outbreak - May 10th & 11th, 2008

Event Summary for Central Alabama - Surveys are still underway.

Severe weather developed late Saturday evening, May 10th, across Central Alabama and continued into the early morning hours on Mother's Day, May 11th. Damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, continuous lightning and minor flooding were all produced by these thunderstorms.

A warm front moved very slowly northward through Central Alabama on May 10th. The atmosphere in the vicinity of the front and southward was extremely unstable. Additionally, moisture was pooling along and south of the front. On Saturday, warm air just above the surface, referred to as a cap, limited the strength and overall development of thunderstorms for much of the day. An upper level disturbance moved from west to east over Central Alabama late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. This disturbance had several effects which aided the development of much stronger and more widespread thunderstorms. This disturbance eroded the cap, produced much stronger winds just above the surface, and pushed a cold front through the region. Therefore, the overall environment was characterized by high wind shear and moderate capes. This severe episode was highlighted in the Birmingham Hazardous Weather Outlook several days before the event.

Tornado Watches were in effect for portions of Central Alabama between 700 pm and 800 am May 10th into May11th.

Identified damage paths;

EF-1 Marion County Tornado
EF-1 Heflin Tornado - Cleburne County
EF-1 Cleburne County Tornado
Straight Line Wind Damage - Winston County
Preliminary Local Storm Reports

New Air Quality Alert Product

Effective Thursday, May 15, 2008, at 4:00 AM CDT (0800 UTC), a new communications identifier will be implemented for all non-routine Air Quality Alert Messages (AQA) issued by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Birmingham, Alabama (WFO BMX). WFO BMX will begin relaying air quality alerts from the Alabama Department of Environmental Management (ADEM) under the AWIPS ID of AQABMX / WMO Header AEUS74 KBMX, and discontinue relaying these alerts under AWIPS ID AQIBMX. The product type line in the mass news disseminator header block will be Air Quality Alert Message.

The AQA is an event-driven product. It is issued when the Alabama Department of Environmental Management relays messages which meet or exceed Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards for poor air quality for the Birmingham area.

Earth Gauge: Recovering Rainwater

Just how much water is flowing out of your home downspouts during a typical rain storm? When about one-inch of rain falls over a 24-hour period, a typical home roof (about 1200 square feet) will shed more than 700 gallons of water. When that water hits the lawn or pavement, much of it runs off of your property and into the storm drain, carrying any pollutants picked up along the way. Water that enters storm drains typically drains to a nearby river or stream, untreated.

Put rain water to use by installing a rain barrel, which attaches to your home downspout to collect and store water from your roof that would otherwise run off your property. Experts estimate that a home rain barrel can save about 1,300 gallons of water during the peak water-use summer months, when collected rain water can be used for lawn and garden watering, window and car washing, and other outdoor uses. If every single-unit home in Alabama added a rain barrel, we would save more than 1.8 billion gallons of water!

Building a rain barrel is an easy and fun do-it-yourself project. The materials can be picked-up at your local home improvement store, and the Center for Watershed Protection offers step-by-step assembly instructions: http://www.cwp.org/Community_Watersheds/brochure.pdf. You can also purchase ready-made rain barrels in some communities - check with your local watershed group or online.

(Sources: The Center for Watershed Protection. "How to Build and Install a Rain Barrel." http://www.cwp.org/Community_Watersheds/brochure.pdf; Rain Gardens of West Michigan. "Rain Barrels: Saving Rain for a Sunny Day." http://www.raingardens.org/Rain_Barrels.php; US Census, American Fact Finder. Alabama: Selected Housing Characteristics, 2006. factfinder.census.gov)

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7PM SUNDAY

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH LASTING THROUGH SUNSET. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECTFOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2AM

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ALABAMA. THIS WATCH INCLUDES 18 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA: BLOUNT, JEFFERSON, SHELBY, ST. CLAIR, TALLADEGA, WALKER , CALHOUN, CLAY, CLEBURNE, ETOWAH, WINSTON, FAYETTE, LAMAR, PICKENS AND TUSCALOOSA.

MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING

MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AROUND NOON. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SINCE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAKE SURE YOU HAVE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLAN READY TO GO WITH YOUR FAMILY AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO CLOSE BY.

Potential for Severe Wx This Afternoon through Sunday around Noon

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL COME MAINLY AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY...HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER...THE MORE ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WILL BE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FINALLY...THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALLOF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. IF CONFIDENCE LATER INCREASES...THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

THREAT FOR SEVERE WX SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE STALLED SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM ON SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BIRMINGHAM AL500 AM CDT
FRI MAY 9 2008ALZ011>015-017>050-101000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-

500 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM..

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG A SLOW MOVINGBOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BESTRONG DAMAGING WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE AREA AROUND NOON AND SLOWLYMOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AFTER 2 PM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL PERSIST MAINLY AFTER 7 PM FORAREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL..

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MAINTHREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE STALLED SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCHOF THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREADURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM ON SUNDAY.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MS INTO W CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 277...

VALID 081713Z - 081845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 277 CONTINUES.

AN ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTIVE CELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
ONGOING SQUALL LINE NOW ADVANCING TOWARD THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS STILL RATHER MODEST... ON THE
ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...AND THIS...COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE WARMING
ALOFT...IS SLOWING STORM INTENSIFICATION. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS SMALL ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. BUT...POTENTIAL
FOR VIGOROUS STORM INITIATION SEEMS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHERE MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING INFLUENCE OF
UPPER IMPULSE NOW LIFTING THROUGH KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. THIS STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR/NORTH OF MERIDIAN INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF
TUSCALOOSA/BIRMINGHAM BY 18-19Z. AND...WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS NEAR A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...THE RISK FOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WILL INCREASE. ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

Mesoscale Discussion

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...CNTRL/NRN AL INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 277...

VALID 081507Z - 081630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 277 CONTINUES.

AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALABAMA.

AS WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST
OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THE TENDENCY WILL
BE FOR ASSOCIATED STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA/NORTHEAST ALABAMA INTO EASTERN
TENNESSEE REMAINS DRY...AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION NEXT FEW HOURS
MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION.

AT THE SAME TIME...A WARMING...SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL REGIME MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST/SOUTH
OF ONGOING NARROW FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL
ADVANCE INTO AREAS WEST OF FLORENCE AL/COLUMBUS MS BY 17-18Z. RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BECOME THE MOST PROMINENT
SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS LINE.

LONGER TERM SEVERE THREAT WITH ISOLATED SUPER CELLULAR ACTIVITY IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SQUALL LINE IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS
IT LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OF FLORENCE/MUSCLE SHOALS...INTO A MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BUT...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT INHIBITION MAY
BECOME WEAK ENOUGH WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA BY
18-19Z. IF THIS OCCURS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. AND...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 40-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE LARGE AND SUPPORTIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

Hazardous Weather Outlook - Thursday, May 08, 2008

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
500 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 10 AM IN THE WEST...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND 9 PM. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.


SIGNIFICANT ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE NOTED CONDITIONS...SOME SUPERCELLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE LONG TRACKED. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS PROMPTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 10 AM THROUGH 7PM. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SYSTEM APPEARS SIGNIFICANT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

World Asthma Day

May is Asthma Awareness Month!

The Environmental Protection Agency has designated May as Asthma Awareness Month, with May 6th being World Asthma Day, an event sponsored by the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA). Pollen and air pollution, particularly ground level ozone, are important outdoor triggers of asthma symptoms. In the United States, an estimated 22 million people, including 6.5 million children, have asthma. Each year, asthma attacks in the United States result in:

-two million emergency room visits;
-sixteen billion dollars worth of lost productivity and health care costs; and
-thirteen million missed school days.

Because pollen counts are at or nearing their peak in most areas, and because we're entering peak ground level ozone season, this is a great time to give viewers simple tips to help them reduce their exposure to potential asthma triggers. Dry and windy days are usually the worst for pollen counts, and changes in weather conditions, especially abrupt changes, can trigger asthma symptoms. Because most pollens are released in the morning, susceptible individuals should avoid outdoor activities between 5:00 and 10:00 AM. Outdoor activities should also be avoided when ground level ozone concentrations and particulate pollution levels are high. Encourage your viewers to stay informed by watching pollen and air quality reports from local media. Before heading outside, they can also visit www.airnow.gov to check on local air quality, and www.pollen.com to view local pollen counts. Remaining in a clean, indoor, air-conditioned environment where filters remove most pollutants and pollens is recommended for asthmatics on days when conditions are conducive to asthma symptoms.

For more information on Asthma Awareness Month, including a list of events near you, visit: http://www.epa.gov/asthma/awm/index.html.

Information on Asthma Awareness Day can be accessed at: http://www.ginasthma.com/WADIndex.asp

Additional information about allergies and asthma can be found at the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology: http://www.aaaai.org/

Hazardous Weather Outlook

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 7 PM...OR MAINLY DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

Earth Gauge: Slow the Flow

Each year, an estimated four billion tons of precious topsoil are lost from America's croplands. When soils make their way into rivers and streams, they can harm aquatic life and impair our drinking water. Additionally, soils can reduce the depth of navigable rivers, and clog reservoirs, which can harm power generation and water supplies. On farmlands, the immediate consequences of erosion can include lower crop yields, increased nitrogen and phosphorous loss, and reduced water-holding capacity, which can increase fertilizer and irrigation costs.

The key to controlling erosion from rain water is to slow the flow of water over agricultural land. If you have cropland that is located on a slope, consider planting your crops across the slope (instead of with the slope), and alternating row crops with forage crops, such as grasses. Planting strips of grasses at regular intervals among row crops forces the flowing water to slow down, which will allow soils carried by the water to settle instead of washing away.

(Sources: United States Department of Agriculture and the United States Environmental Protection Agency. "A Farmer's Guide to Agriculture and Water Quality Issues." Accessed Online 27 March 2008 <http://www.cals.ncsu.edu/wq/wqp/wetlands/wetfactsheets.html>)

Dry through Mid-Week

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ONTHURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA.

Strong to Severe T'Storms Possible on Saturday

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY NOON TODAY. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. A LAKE WINDADVISORY IS IN EFFECT..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...FROM AROUND 2 PM TO 8PM FRIDAY.THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE TREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM 8AM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY EVENING.