Potential Thanksgiving Day Storms

A weak Cold Front to our North is slowly dragging Southward and could help produce a few light showers before Noon on Sunday. A weak mid-level disturbance to our West will also help with some small precipitation chances Sunday Afternoon, but only a slight chance of rain overall doesn't offer much hope for a drought stricken Alabama.

Winds will shift behind the Front Sunday Afternoon to more of a Northerly Flow. This will help us clear out for Monday and Tuesday. As High Pressure settles over us for the first half of the week, the clockwise flow around the High will begin to rapidly increase the amount of moisture in the air. It will also serve to produce above average temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

The biggest concern in the long term will be a developing storm system out West. The models have been fairly consistent with a possible severe weather situation developing Wednesday Night through the morning hours on Thursday (Thanksgiving Morning). The GFS Surface Chart above shows precipitation at 12Z Thursday(morning).

As I can remember, of the last five Thanksgivings I have seen in the Twin State Region (AL,MS), four of them had a healthy dose of severe weather Thanksgiving Day. The trend may be extended so pay close attention to the development of this system in the coming days.

Looking at the 850mb Chart for 12 Thursday (same time as other chart), you will notice the sharp contrast of temperatures. The Cold Air will swoop in for Friday and Saturday. Mornings will be in the mid 30's and afternoons in the mid 50's.