Increasing Tornado Threat this Afternoon

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 164 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND APPEARS GREATEST WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO W CNTRL AND SW MS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM CNTRL AND SRN MS THROUGH CNTRL AL. LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NERN AL SWWD THROUGH CNTRL MS...SWD ALONG THE MS/LA BORDER THEN SWWD INTO SERN TX. PORTION OF LINE OVER WRN MS IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 50 KT. LOW CLOUDS ARE MIXING OUT ALLOWING THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 80 ALONG WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS. VWP DATA SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS VEERED TO SSWLY WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 100 TO 150 M2/S2...BUT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE 15Z RAOB FROM JACKSON MS SHOWED THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE BETWEEN 850-700 MB HAS COOLED AND MOISTENED...EFFECTIVELY MINIMIZING THE CAPPING INVERSION. MOREOVER...RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED WITH DISCRETE CELLS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM SRN MS NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AL. THIS CONVECTION MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL IF IT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.