VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 161/162 CONTINUE UNTIL 16Z...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. SOUTH/EAST OF WATCHES 161/162...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY MID MORNING OR SO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LA/CENTRAL MS INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL. PRE-COLD FRONTAL STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TN/FAR NORTHWEST AL AND NORTHERN MS TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE AR/LA BORDER AS OF 1245Z. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS REFLECT A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THE EXISTING LINE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED THROUGH THE MORNING OWING TO INSOLATION/HEATING...WHILE QUASI-DISCRETE PRE-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS WELL. 12Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM SHREVEPORT LA REFLECTS ONLY A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM SHREVEPORT/JACKSON/BIRMINGHAM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN LA INTO CENTRAL AL BY MID/LATE MORNING. GIVEN THE WEAK CAPPING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 KT OR GREATER WITH THE WARM SECTOR...SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL BECOME A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE OTHERWISE POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL.
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