VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR MELISSA FOR THE PASTSEVERAL HOURS...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF A NEWBURST OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AREINCREASING A LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE NUDGEDUPWARD TO 40 KT. THIS INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BESHORT-LIVED AS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTS THE TROPICALCYCLONE. A SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE NHC FORECAST... AND THENIS A LITTLE FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES OVER30 KT OF DESTRUCTIVE WESTERLY SHEAR. MELISSA IS A SMALL TROPICALCYCLONE...AND SINCE SMALL STORMS ARE TYPICALLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TOSHEAR...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR IT TO DISSIPATE FASTER THANSHOWN BELOW.Saturday, September 29, 2007
T.S. Melissa
VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR MELISSA FOR THE PASTSEVERAL HOURS...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF A NEWBURST OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AREINCREASING A LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE NUDGEDUPWARD TO 40 KT. THIS INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BESHORT-LIVED AS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTS THE TROPICALCYCLONE. A SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE NHC FORECAST... AND THENIS A LITTLE FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES OVER30 KT OF DESTRUCTIVE WESTERLY SHEAR. MELISSA IS A SMALL TROPICALCYCLONE...AND SINCE SMALL STORMS ARE TYPICALLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TOSHEAR...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR IT TO DISSIPATE FASTER THANSHOWN BELOW.
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