About temperature that is.... Tuesday will be a bit of a tricky day for forecasting High Temps. On of the hardest things to forecast for are clouds and the percentage of cloud cover. All the folks at home get to hear is "Partly Cloudy" or "Mostly Cloudy" or even "Mostly Sunny." But the truth is that even a small percentage of change in cloud cover can bust your forecast. Too many clouds and temperatures aren't as warm. Too few clouds and BLAM! RECORD HIGH! The you get into the timing of the cloud cover. Wheeeeeeeew... don't even get me started. This is the dilemma I am facing tonight as I am concerned with changing my forecast for tomorrow.
A Cold Front will move through Central Alabama tomorrow. But the computer models vary by as much as 6 hours. Which one do you decide on? Then I am considering the wind fields. It looks like we could pick up a more Northerly Flow before the front moves through and this would severely limit our rain chances and cloud development. The NWS is forecasting near record Highs with a Cold Front passing through tomorrow. While not out of the question, I am leaning more toward the mid 80's than their low 90's. But they are persistent in the forecast. I have been combing over the models and data for anything I may have missed that would indicate to me the warmer temps. (With that I must say that there are a few models suggesting 90's but they just don't seem to add up for tomorrow).
A good friend of mine said to me earlier when we were discussing the situation, "Just go with what your gut tells you. " I think that's what I am going to do. Its right more often than I am.
**These are just a few of the thoughts we as meteorologists have while formulating a 7 day forecast.
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