Thursday, October 25, 2007

Rain No Help for Drought (Yet)


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 25 2007

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...

SYNOPSIS...
SOME MUCH NEEDED AND MUCH WELCOMED RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE PAST WEEK AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTED THE AREA. DESPITE THIS RAINFALL...THERE WAS ONLY SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PLAGUING THE AREA. THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM HACKLEBURG TO NEAR CARROLLTON TO JUST EAST OF LINDEN. MOST AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE REMAIN IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT WITHIN ONE OF THESE FIVE CATEGORIES:

1) ABNORMALLY DRY
2) MODERATE
3) SEVERE
4) EXTREME
5) EXCEPTIONAL

DURING THE PAST WEEK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES OF RAIN...WITH VERY LOCALIZED TOTALS TO NEAR 4 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL PROVIDED ONLY SOME SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...AS VERY DRY SOIL SOAKED UP MOST OF RAINFALL AND VERY LITTLE RUNOFF MADE ITS WAY INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS. THIS MORNING...SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WAS STILL OCCURRING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA.

RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MONTH IS AVERAGING FROM NEAR AN INCH IN SOME OF THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...TO OVER FIVE INCHES IN THE EXTREME WEST. NORMAL RAINFALL FOR OCTOBER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AVERAGES BETWEEN TWO AND A HALF AND THREE AND A HAL FINCHES.

SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA JANUARY 1ST THROUGH OCTOBER 24TH:

BIRMINGHAM 25.21
MONTGOMERY 32.11
ANNISTON 16.19
TUSCALOOSA 21.07
CALERA 28.03
TROY 33.42

AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1ST THROUGH OCTOBER 24TH:
BIRMINGHAM 44.09 DOWN 18.88
MONTGOMERY 44.61 DOWN 12.50
ANNISTON 42.88 DOWN 26.69
TUSCALOOSA 46.54 DOWN 25.47

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
SOIL MOISTURES DEPARTURES HAVE IMPROVED SOME DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR ADDISON TO CENTREVILLE TO OPELIKA HAVE IMPROVED INTO THE 10 TO 30 PERCENTILE OF NORMAL RANGE. HOWEVER...AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE ARE STILL BELOW 10 PERCENTILE OF NORMAL.

SERIOUS AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS CONTINUE. ACCORDING TO THE USDA...THE RECENT RAINFALL HAS COME TOO LATE TO HELP MANY CROPS AND HAS DONE VERY LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SOME PERCENTAGES OF POOR AND VERY POOR CONDITIONS REPORTED BY THE USDA INCLUDE:

COTTON.....68 PERCENT
SOYBEANS...80 PERCENT
PEANUTS....41 PERCENT
LIVESTOCK..59 PERCENT
PASTURE....78 PERCENT

ACCORDING TO THE USDA THE SOYBEAN CROP REMAINS IN VERY POOR CONDITION. PASTURE CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED POOR...WITH VERY LITTLE GRASS AVAILABLE TO LIVESTOCK FOR GRAZING. WHAT HAY IS AVAILABLE IS BEING FED TO LIVESTOCK. THE COTTON HARVEST HAS ALSO SUFFERED SEVERELY.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...THE FIRE DANGER RISK REMAINS HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)...REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 600 TO ABOVE 700 RANGE NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR LIVINGSTON TO ALABASTER TO AUBURN. THIS INDICATES A HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE INDICES HAVE IMPROVED INTO THE 350 TO 500RANGE...INDICATING A LESS SEVERE FIRE DANGER AT THIS TIME.

THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS CURRENTLY LIFTED THE FIRE ALERT FOR ALL COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA.

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
STREAM FLOWS HAVE SHOWN SOME IMPROVEMENT DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL.WEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY MONTGOMERY TO CLANTON TO WEISS LAKE...USGS GAGING SITES HAVE MOSTLY IMPROVED INTO THE 25 TO 89 PERCENTILE OF NORMAL RANGE. EVEN TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE...ALTHOUGH MANY STREAM FLOWS STILL REMAIN VERY LOW...SOME IMPROVEMENT HAS OCCURRED FROM THIS WEEK`S RAINFALL.

DESPITE THE RAINFALL...MAJOR RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS CONTINUE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH SERIOUS NEGATIVE IMPACTS CONTINUING. POOL LEVELS IN MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL WINTER LEVELS...WITH SOME APPROACHING RECORD LOW LEVELS. SOME OF THE MOST SERIOUS IMPACTS CONTINUE ON THE COOSA AND TALLAPOOSA RIVERS...WHERE MANY BOAT LANDINGS HAVE BECOME UNUSABLE DUE TO EXTREMELY LOW LAKE LEVELS. ON LAKE MARTIN...ALL MARINAS HAVE SHUT DOWN BECAUSE THERE IS NO ACCESS TO THEM DUE TO EXTREMELY LOW LAKE LEVELS. UNLESS ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURS...NO REAL IMPROVEMENT IN THESE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

SOCIAL IMPACTS...RECENT RAINFALL HAS AIDED LAWNS AND DROUGHT STRESSED SHRUBBERY AND PLANTS...BUT WATER SHORTAGES STILL REMAIN A PROBLEM IN MANY AREAS.WATER RESTRICTIONS ALREADY IN PLACE CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA'S WATER SHORTAGES COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DOES NOT OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ABOUT 50PERCENT OF THE STATE`S POPULATION IS UNDER SOME FORM OF WATER RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEPARTING THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...FOR OCTOBER 30TH THROUGH NOVEMBER 7TH...IS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

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