Severe Weather Potential

Here is information on the severe weather potential over the deep south overnight Wednesday and Thursday from the Severe Storms Prediction Center. Please stay with the CBS 42 Weather Team as we monitor and track this weather situation.


CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
VALID WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY MORNING

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN OK...SRN AND CNTRL MO AND MUCH OF AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...
...ERN OK THROUGH LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...

EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN KS SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK...N CNTRL AND CNTRL TX. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IL WWD INTO CNTRL MO THEN SWWD INTO NRN OK WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE. NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES EXIST IN WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 500-1200 J/KG FROM ERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WV IMAGERY AND RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG VORT MAX OVER CNTRL KS AND OK WITH ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO 65+ KT AS IT SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MO AND IL. DESPITE THE RECENT OVERALL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT. GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY REGIONS WHERE ASCENT ATTENDING NEWD EJECTING VORT MAX AS WELL AS LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST. THREAT FARTHER NWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN IL IS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.