DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

...DISCUSSION...

GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DEPICTIONS OF MAJOR FEATURES DAY 4 /TUESDAY FEB. 5/ -- BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BOTH MODELS FORECAST A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THEN ON EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF DAY 4 AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

WITH A SURFACE "BERMUDA"-TYPE HIGH FORECAST TO PERSIST...NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS FAR N AS THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ATTM IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY 4 PERIOD.

ALONG WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AMPLE INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...WITH 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT CENTERED OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT -- WHICH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DAY 5...GENERALLY STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.