Analysis for Today

SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE WAVES ARE EVIDENT WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUT...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS GENERALLY OUT RUNNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...AT THE SAME TIME AS MOISTURE RETURN IS SUPPRESSED BY AN INCREASING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY UNDERGONE A STEADY WEAKENING/DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH OF WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE REMAINS A FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AND...THIS FORCING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/EAST OF MERIDIAN MS THROUGH THE BIRMINGHAM AREA BY 13-15Z. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH PARCELS LIKELY TO REACH LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL.