Forecast Discussion

LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXITING STAGE RIGHT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED EMBEDDED QUASI-LINEAR FEATURE NOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHERN DE KALB COUNTIES. RADAR NOTED 30-40 KT WINDS ~3KFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THAT SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON.

RAINFALL AROUND THE AREA HAS BEEN QUITE VARIABLE THUS FAR THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF AROUND ONE TO ONE-HALF INCH OVER A NARROW SWATH FROM CULLMAN COUNTY THROUGH MARSHALL COUNTY...AND A GENERAL COVERAGE OF AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH.

ATTENTION IS NOW FOCUSED ON THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. SOME WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...WITH DEEPER CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED RECENTLY FURTHER NORTH IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THINK THAT WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

AT THIS TIME...THINK SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS SLIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG OR PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AT WHICH TIME BETTER DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS THE STRONG 850-925 MB 60 KT LOW LVL JET PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.IN ITS WAKE...WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE STILL ~40-50 KTS...SO WE MAY SEE SOME STRONG GUSTS IN ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY UP THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER...COMBINED WITH FAIRLY LOW WET BULB FREEZING LEVEL AT~9.5KFT...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.BUT...AGAIN THINK THE PROBABILITY FOR THAT NOW IS SLIGHT.