MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CENTRAL/NWRN GA...
SMALL PART OF NERN AL-- WRN/CENTRAL SUBSET OF WW 119.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...
VALID 151908Z - 152015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.
AS ADJOINING WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZEGRADUALLY...CONVECTION IS BUILDING AND BECOMING SVR INVOF AL/GASTATE LINE...ALONG WRN SEGMENT OF COMBINED SFC WARM FRONT ANDOUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SFC WINDS IN WARM SECTOR HAVE VEERED IN RESPONSETO EWD SHIFT OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NERNGA TORNADIC STORM...AND ASSOCIATED MESOCIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...BULKSHEAR ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NWRN GA WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE -- E.G. ROUGHLY60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE FROM FFC RAOB AND RUCSOUNDINGS...AND 0-1 KM SRH STILL EXCEEDING 200 J/KG BASED ON VWP ANDRAOB DATA. MODIFIED 18Z FFC RAOB INDICATES THAT SFC TEMPS LOW-MID70S F AND DEW POINTS LOW 60S SUPPORT MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND VERYWEAK CINH.
STRENGTHENING SUPERCELLS OVER CALHOUN/CLEBURNE COUNTIESAL GA AT 19Z ARE MOVING ENE 40-45 KT.
ASSOCIATED RISK OF DAMAGINGHAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES COULD AFFECT ATL METRO AREA DURING20-21Z TIME FRAME THEN ENEWD TOWARD AREAS NEAR AND JUST N AHN INENSUING 1-2 HOURS
..EDWARDS.. 03/15/2008
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