AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 150336Z - 150500Z
MCS OVER SRN AR/NRN LA SHOULD PROPAGATE/DEVELOP EWD AS SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT BENEATH EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL WLY JET ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL RATES WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN LARGER MCS CLUSTER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST GENERALLY JUST N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND TXK TO 20 N JAN TO 25 N MEI. ONGOING MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS HAS PRIMARILY BEEN LOCATED ALONG/N OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FOCUSES ASCENT EWD. DESPITE SLOWLY INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS S OF THE FRONT /NOTED IN RECENT ANALYSES/...EWD PENETRATION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SUCH THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LARGELY BE LARGE HAIL E OF TORNADO WATCH 111.
..GRAMS.. 03/15/2008
No comments:
Post a Comment