Severe Potential Today

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191208Z - 191415Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW IN THE NEAR TERM. BUT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD STILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

PRONOUNCED MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY FACTOR MINIMIZING THE SEVERE THREAT TO THIS POINT. INHIBITION FOR WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL...AND WEAK COOLING ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL JET EXIT REGION HAS NOT BEEN SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME IT. AND...IT APPEARS THAT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ABOUT TO BECOME CUT-OFF. HEATING OF A BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MID 60S DEW POINTS...COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE...NOW STILL OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION...COULD STILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE NOW SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH WESTERN ALABAMA. BUT...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME.

OTHERWISE...AT LEAST WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC UPDRAFT ROTATION COULD STILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS...EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 JET AXIS SPREADING ACROSS ALABAMA. BUT...A RELATIVELY COOL/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH FLOW EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE PROBABLY WILL MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR TORNADOES.