MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS INTO NRN/CNTRL AL AND PARTS OF
MIDDLE/ERN TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 134...
VALID 190955Z - 191200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 134 CONTINUES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...BUT A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...PERHAPS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z
EXPIRATION OF CURRENT WW.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT SUPERCELLS NOW NORTHEAST OF
JACKSON...NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE...WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF A 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
500 KT JET STREAK WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS STILL COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASING TORNADIC
POTENTIAL AS CELLS PROGRESS INTO AREAS NEAR/WEST AND SOUTH OF
STARKVILLE AND COLUMBUS BY AROUND 12Z. SLOW WARMING/ MOISTENING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THIS REGION...AS SUB
1000 MB SURFACE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
CONTINUING SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND 12Z IS MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MAINTAINED A
DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE EAST OF WW 134. BUT...AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT COULD PERSIST...AT LEAST WITH
STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW
TRACK...THROUGH AREAS OF ALABAMA TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
BIRMINGHAM...POSSIBLY PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 15-17Z.
..KERR.. 03/19/2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS INTO NRN/CNTRL AL AND PARTS OF
MIDDLE/ERN TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 134...
VALID 190955Z - 191200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 134 CONTINUES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...BUT A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...PERHAPS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z
EXPIRATION OF CURRENT WW.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT SUPERCELLS NOW NORTHEAST OF
JACKSON...NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE...WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF A 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
500 KT JET STREAK WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS STILL COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASING TORNADIC
POTENTIAL AS CELLS PROGRESS INTO AREAS NEAR/WEST AND SOUTH OF
STARKVILLE AND COLUMBUS BY AROUND 12Z. SLOW WARMING/ MOISTENING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THIS REGION...AS SUB
1000 MB SURFACE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
CONTINUING SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND 12Z IS MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MAINTAINED A
DRIER/COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE EAST OF WW 134. BUT...AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT COULD PERSIST...AT LEAST WITH
STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW
TRACK...THROUGH AREAS OF ALABAMA TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
BIRMINGHAM...POSSIBLY PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 15-17Z.
..KERR.. 03/19/2008
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